Economy

WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast

WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast

The United States has exempted India from specific sanctions related to the development of the Chabahar port in Iran and the construction of a railway line linking it with Afghanistan, PTI reported.

The mixed outcome of the U.S. congressional mid-term elections saw stockmarket jump, but oil prices fell to their lowest levels since March as the tightening of Trump administration sanctions on Iran from Monday continued to splutter.

Oil peaked in early October on concerns that USA sanctions on Iran that came into force this week would drain global crude inventories and bring shortages in some regions.

The sanctions aim to further isolate Iran by choking off its main source of revenue - oil exports - by imposing sanctions on countries and companies that do not end their imports.

However, the administration granted waivers allowing eight major oil-importing countries - including China and India, Iran's top two customers - continue buying Iranian petroleum products without penalty for another six months.

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U.S. crude oil production last week reached record high, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels in the week ending Nov 2, to 431.79 million barrels, the EIA said.

"This also came at a time where the U.S., Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia had been boosting oil to record levels", McQueen added.

"Bernstein Energy expects "Iranian exports will average 1.4-1.5 million barrels per day (bpd)" during the exemption period", down from a peak of nearly 3 million bpd in mid-2018. Tehran worries OPEC and non-OPEC countries such as Russian Federation will increase their production to fill the gap in response.

But a cascade of geopolitical events has blown up the oil world's harmony that sends 100 million barrels a day from the world's producers to thirsty consumers at a price that is satisfactory to both sides. Iraq has also received a waiver for the import of electricity from Tehran.

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"The market continues to shift from worrying about tightening supplies to acknowledging upside supply risks and weakening demand growth", analysts at JBC Energy wrote in a report.

The selling pressure around crude oil remains unabated so far this week, intensifying the breakdown of the $62.00 mark per barrel today, levels last seen in March.

This, combined with increased output from Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation, caused Tamar Essner, director of energy and utilities at Nasdaq Corporate Solutions, to remark, "All three of them are continuing to pump at record levels, that's been. part of what's causing oil to move into a bear market".

The Americans have shown this year that they are capable of ramping up production by more than the Saudis can cut it.

"If you look at oil prices they've come down very substantially over the last couple of months", Mr. Trump said.

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