Economy

India's economic growth surges to 8.2%

India's economic growth surges to 8.2%

The latest figures, which mark India's highest growth rate in eight quarters, shot up from 5.6 percent for the same period previous year and reinforces the nation's status as one of the world's fastest growing economies. Even with the updated base year, experts had been estimating the GDP growth to remain in the range of 7.5-7.6 per cent during the June quarter.

It had slowed down to 5.6 per cent in the April-June quarter in 2017, before picking up pace and touching 7.7 per cent in the July-September quarter in 2017.

India is a massive importer of oil, however, and analysts say high crude prices and a tumbling Indian rupee threaten to derail growth. This is the highest economic growth for a quarter recorded in over two years.

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For instance, the manufacturing sector grew at 13.5% in the June quarter compared to -1.8% a year ago.

According to a Central Statistics Office statement, the quarterly Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic price at constant (2011-2012) prices for the first quarter of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 31.63 lakh crore.

He said the V-shaped recovery of growth in the Indian economy was complete now. "Sustaining GDP growth at over 8% over the next few years would require significant traction in private investments and relentless implementation of reforms to raise productivity". "We should grow at a robust and steady state in 2018-19, remaining the fastest-growing economy in the world", he said. "Q1 growth rate is based on the lowest base (5.6) in the last 8 quarters", he tweeted.

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Agriculture and allied activities also registered an impressive 5.3 per cent growth rate in Q1FY19, up from 4.5 per cent in Q4FY18, on the back of a surge in production. "Oil prices at current levels will raise expenditures and add to existing pressures on the fiscal position stemming from the lowering of goods and services tax (GST) rates on a range of consumer goods and a tax cut for small businesses as well as the relatively high minimum support prices (MSPs) set for this year", Moody's said.

Sector-wise growth figures for GVA show that manufacturing and construction have registered the biggest improvements. Manufacturing growth in Q1 2018 had gone into negative territory.

Subhash Garg, the economic affairs secretary, told reporters the government will stick to the fiscal deficit target of 3.3 percent of GDP this fiscal year. "And when we reach Q3 and Q4, the rate of growth may decline and the annual growth rate may be more or less like last year's", he said on Twitter. The favourable base effect this time around has prompted economists to caution that 8%-plus growth doesn't seem likely for the net three quarters.

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