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Oil Rises on Signs of Falling Inventory

Oil Rises on Signs of Falling Inventory

"Investors continued to worry about the impact of a wider conflict in the Middle East", ANZ bank said.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May delivery increased 0.30 USA dollar to settle at 66.52 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude for June delivery added 0.16 dollar to close at 71.58 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange. USA crude inventories dropped by 1 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute announced on Tuesday. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 49 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $67.01 a barrel.

Crude oil prices fell Monday after US drilling activity rose and fears fell concerning escalating tensions in the Middle East following air strikes on Syria over the weekend.

Traders said oil markets were receiving general support due to the risk of supply interruptions, including a potentially spreading conflict in the Middle East, renewed USA sanctions against Iran and falling output in crisis-hit Venezuela.

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"Oil prices are holding near three-year highs (reached earlier in April) for the time being, and with inventories back in line with normal level, the supply glut of the last few years appears to be over", said William O'Loughlin, who is an investment analyst at Australia's Rivkin Securities. Beyond that, O'Loughlin claimed that the falling output in Venezuela because of its economic and political crises was helping out oil prices.

It could also stimulate production from Brazil and the United States, where output is countering an effort by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to balance an oversupplied market with coordinated cuts.

Although Syria itself is not a significant oil producer, the Middle East is the world's most important crude exporter and tension in the region tends to put oil markets on edge.

Oil minister from Oman have called on OPEC and Russian Federation to extend their supply quota plan beyond 2018, according to reports.

IMF Maintains India's FY19 Growth At 7.4%; Cautions Govt On Fiscal Deficit
"Favourable conditions will not last forever", International Monetary Fund economic counsellor Maurice Obstfeld wrote. China has vowed to protect its interests at any cost , announcing higher tariffs on US$50bn worth of U.S. imports.

In spite of that, ING believes that lower prices will come next year due to rising United States crude output.

However, later in the year, oil prices may face a correction as USA production continues to surge.

At the beginning of this year, J.P. Morgan lifted its Brent oil price forecast to $70 a barrel for 2018. The structure of the Brent and WTI forward price curve also points to a tighter market in 2018.

The premium for June 2018 over June 2019 prices for Brent and WTI is $5.50 and $6 per barrel respectively, creating a market structure known as backwardation in which it is attractive to sell crude immediately instead of keeping it in storage for later sale.

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